Bihar Chunav Opinion Poll Survey: Biggest figures came out for Bihar election, Nitish is the first choice for CM but ….
Bihar Chunav Opinion Poll Survey News: The results of Bihar Assembly Elections 2020 will come on November 10, but before that, Prabhat Khabar poll experts have conducted an opinion poll (Opinion Poll) by the experts Lokniti and CSDS. Know what the detailed report of Lokniti and CSDS survey says. A pre-election poll was conducted among 3731 voters from 37 assembly constituencies in Bihar during October 10 to 17 under the Center for Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) Lokniti program.
As of last week, the four parties in the NDA – JDU, BJP, HAM (we) and VIP – have a clear edge over the grand alliance of the RJD, Congress and three communist parties. The survey found that in every five voters, the voting choice of less than two was NDA. At the same time, the Mahagathbandhan was liked by about one-third of the voters. At the same time, LJP, which broke away from the NDA just before the elections, got six percent votes. If this gap between the NDA and the Grand Alliance remains till the day of election, then it should be enough to give an edge to the Nitish Kumar-led NDA.
NDA benefits due to divided opposition
Our pre-poll poll so far shows that the NDA is getting benefited due to badly divided opposition and the anti-Nitish vote is getting scattered. But there are still two concerns for Nitish Kumar. One, his popularity ratings have dropped compared to the previous one, although he is still more popular than any other leader. At the same time, the other concern for JD (U) is the ability of LJP, which is playing the role of spoiler.
Independents and small teams can spoil the game
Independents and smaller parties like RLSP, BSP, MIM, JAP and newly formed Plural Party can all together make up a large portion of the vote (not uncommon in Bihar) in their favor. These teams can influence the outcome in some constituencies by spoiling the game of LJP, especially where there is scope for a close fight.
NDA in strong position but
Although the NDA appears to be in a strong position at the moment, but it was found in the survey that about 10 percent of the voters have not been able to decide whom they will vote for. Also, 14 percent voters, who were given preference, also said that they can change their current choice till the day of voting day. It has the ability to do two things – either to lead the NDA to a major victory, or to make the election even more interesting in the current proportions by making the contest closer.
It is difficult to tell which path these voters will take. In our survey, the non-literate, Dalit, Muslim, Kushwaha, women and elderly were found among the voters with indecision. In addition, the results in Bihar pre-election and post-poll results came out differently, not because the survey was done poorly, but because the voter’s behavior has become increasingly volatile.
Vote will be decided on local candidate, not party
A pre-poll poll found that more than a quarter of all voters (about 27%) would vote based on the local candidate chosen by the political party instead of the party or chief ministerial candidate. This is an important ratio. The reason for the large number of people saying to vote in view of the candidate of the constituency may also be the resentment of the current MLA of different parties in their constituency.
More than half the voters are angry with the current MLAs
Nearly half of the voters in the survey were found to be dissatisfied with the performance of their current MLAs, especially from BJP and JDU MLAs and hence the candidates’ direction will be decided on the basis of the candidate itself. For now, given the current leanings of various castes and communities, it appears that despite a strong sense of anti-incumbency in voting (at least two out of every five of all respondents made it clear that they were part of the government Do not want to return) NDA will continue to lead on the Grand Alliance.
NDA benefits due to these castes
This benefit to the NDA is largely due to the integration of upper caste, middle OBC and EBC and Mushar-Mahadalit, as more than half of the voters of these communities are inclined towards the NDA and want the current government to return to power. If seen together, the number of voters in these communities is slightly more than 50 percent. The RJD-led Mahagathbandhan, on the other hand, is doing well among its traditional Muslim-Yadav (or MY as it is known) alliance (around a third of the total electorate). ‘Y’ has a stronger inclination than ‘M’.
They do not want the return of Nitish government
Except for Bhumihars, the Grand Alliance is unable to make any big dent in the original voters of the NDA, at least not yet. Dalit voters in particular want to see Ravidas and Paswan exiting compared to Nitish Kumar being in power, but they are badly divided over their vote choice. They also seem to be attracted to the third option offered by RLSP, BSP and MIM.
Low enthusiasm among Muslim voters
In the pre-poll survey, four-fifths of voters from almost all communities agreed to vote (87 percent said they were more likely to vote in elections). Voters of Muslim community, who are considered as traditional voters of MGB / RJD, found less enthusiasm. A total of 79 percent said they were highly likely to vote.